How Does This End Well?

It looks like the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive may finally be getting underway. Yesterday, Russia repelled Ukrainian attacks in five places.

It’s very early — these were likely probing attacks looking to detect weak points in Russian defensive positions — but these attacks were much heavier than previous probing attacks.

We’ll have to see what happens.

When the main offensive comes, it’s very possible that Ukrainian forces will break through in certain areas. They might capture some territory (with plenty of U.S./NATO-supplied reconnaissance and intelligence to assist them), but it’s unlikely that their gains will be sustainable.

Ukrainian flag by Max Kukurudziak is licensed under

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