Florida votes today. Polls opened at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. local time, which means the panhandle finishes an hour behind the rest of the state and the full picture will not be clear until after 8 p.m. Eastern. Here is what actually matters, and it is not only the name at the top of the ballot.
The governor's race is Donalds' to lose.
Congressman Byron Donalds, endorsed by President Trump and backed by both of Florida's senators, is the clear favorite in a twelve candidate field to succeed the term limited Ron DeSantis. He raised roughly $45 million last year, a state record. If he wins the nomination he starts the general election ahead, and he would be the first Black governor in Florida history. Republicans have won every governor's race in this state since 1998.
The polling, however, does not agree with itself. Some surveys have shown Donalds near or above 50 percent. The most recent public poll had the race inside five points, 34 percent to 29.4 percent for investment firm founder James Fishback. The Decision Desk HQ average is more comfortable for Donalds at 37 percent, with Fishback at 18.4 and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 16.6. When the spread between credible polls is that wide, nobody knows, and conservatives should be skeptical of anyone claiming otherwise tonight.
The number to watch is Fishback's share, not the winner's.
This is the part that matters beyond Florida. Fishback has run a campaign defined in large part by racial attacks on Donalds, including a slur-adjacent rendering of his first name and a claim that his election would degrade the state. He has also drawn accusations of antisemitism over his use of online slang associated with those circles, which he denies while pledging to represent all Floridians. A group aligned with Senator Ted Cruz spent $400,000 running ads against him on that basis.
Fishback reportedly polls around 32 percent with voters between 18 and 32. That is the signal worth taking seriously. If he finishes with a quarter or more of the primary vote, Republicans have a faction problem that will not be solved by Donalds winning tonight, and the general election will feature a permanent supply of clips. If he finishes in the teens, the party can say the coalition held.
DeSantis is the quiet story.
The governor has endorsed nobody. Reporting indicates he has spent months arguing privately and publicly that Donalds is not fit to succeed him, including in conversations with Trump. He offered kind words about former House Speaker Paul Renner without endorsing him. Collins, a Green Beret who lost a leg in combat and was appointed Lieutenant Governor last year, has run explicitly on protecting the DeSantis record. Watch the combined Collins and Renner vote. That is the measure of how much of the DeSantis coalition is still its own thing.
Florida's 25th District is the left's next test.
Democratic Congressman Jared Moskowitz faces a DSA-aligned primary challenger, Oliver Larkin, in a light red seat. Conservatives should follow this one closely, because it is the fourth such contest in a month. Wisconsin nearly nominated a democratic socialist for governor. Minnesota nominated a candidate who campaigned on tearing ICE apart, by twenty points. Michigan nominated a man who says he wants to be the main character of the midterms. The press keeps calling this a debate inside the Democratic Party. Four in a row is not a debate. It is a direction.
Trump's endorsement gets a harder test downballot.
Congressman Cory Mills is seeking renomination while under investigation by the House Ethics Committee. He carries the President's endorsement. If he survives comfortably, the endorsement is worth what everyone assumes. If he struggles, that tells you something about how much Republican primary voters will absorb on a candidate's behalf, and party committees should be paying attention before they write checks in October.
One more thing about November.
Florida also redrew its congressional map this spring to add Republican seats, which scattered the state's Democratic incumbents into district shopping and internal fights. That is a real structural advantage. It is not a substitute for a nominee who can hold the coalition together.
David Jolly, a former Republican congressman now running as a Democrat, is favored for the Democratic nomination for governor. On paper he should not be competitive in a state Trump carried three times. Paper is not the whole of it. A bruising primary that ends with a quarter of Republicans having voted for a candidate who spent the spring attacking the nominee's race is exactly the kind of thing that makes a safe state interesting.
Watch the topline. Then look at the second number. That is the one that tells you what kind of fall this is going to be.
