The Polls say Republicans are cooked. Before anyone accepts that as settled, it is worth laying out the actual evidence that the polling is wrong, because it is stronger than most people realize and it comes from sources nobody can dismiss as partisan.

The Texas Senate race has now crossed half a billion dollars in advertising alone.

The national House map is objectively better for Republicans today than it was a year ago. That is not our assessment. That is Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections, who tracks these races for a living.

Early voting is now open across most of the country, and the first returns are in from enough states to see a pattern.

Early voting opened in several key states last week. Here is what happened on so far.

AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising for the 2025-26 cycle. That beats the $11.2 billion spent in 2024, which included a presidential race, and it dwarfs the $8.9 billion spent during the last midterms.