How the GOP Will Retake the House in 2020

The Democrats, despite their exaggerated claims about the fabled “blue wave” of 2018, have a very tenuous grasp on the House majority. The Republicans need to flip only 18 seats in 2020 to regain control of that body — and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has already identified nearly twice that number of vulnerable Democrats in districts won by President Trump during the last presidential election. Moreover, the NRCC will certainly exploit the all too accurate public perception that House Democrats have veered sharply to the left and accomplished virtually nothing beyond investigating President Trump and obstructing his agenda.

The “moderate” Democratic freshmen whose narrow 2018 victories provided their party with its thin House majority are concerned that the public agrees with the President’s characterization of the Democrats as a “Do Nothing Party,” with no real legislative agenda. Their worries are well founded. The Washington Post reports that numerous focus groups indicate that most voters are “unaware of political developments that don’t involve the president.” This is largely due to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s penchant for impugning Trump’s integrity. She regularly suggests that he is corrupt and has said that he belongs in prison. But the voters aren’t buying it:

One poll that has gotten attention among Democratic leaders, commissioned by the advocacy group End Citizens United, found in early May that voters in 12 presidential battleground states trusted Democrats no more than Trump to crack down on political corruption or limit the influence of money in politics.

This can’t be comforting to those freshman Democrats who promised their constituents they would rise above the corrupting influence of the Beltway. The NRCC is taking aim at those very freshmen, and it is a target rich environment. Kendra Horn (D-OK), for example, won her Oklahoma seat by mere 1.4 percent in a district that Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2016. The NRCC has likewise drawn a bead on Joe Cunningham (D-SC), who also won his South Carolina seat by 1.4 percent. Trump carried that district by 13 points. Another target is Xochitl Torres Small (D-NM), who won her New Mexico seat by 1.8 percent in a district Trump won by 10 points.

There are 31 Democrats clinging to districts that Trump won in 2016. Of the 18 districts the GOP needs to flip in order to retake the House majority, Trump won 16 by 5 points or more. But the NRCC isn’t limiting its 2020 House offensive to the “Trump districts.” It has targeted a total of 55 in all, including 20 seats won by the GOP in 2016 and 4 additional seats identified as potential pick-up opportunities. One of the targeted districts is held by Cheri Bustos (D-IL), the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Bustos is well aware of what she’s up against and has created the “Frontline program” to defend 44 vulnerable Dem seats: